This year, the Earth sent clear signals that its climate is getting hotter and moving into unknown territory.
From a The sea of deadly mud that flooded Spain For major hurricanes that is They crashed one after another In coastal Florida, extreme weather has occurred in 2024. Climatologists Policymakers have repeatedly warned That unless countries Reduce carbon emissions immediatelyThe planet will enter an uncontrollable phase of rising temperatures and climate chaos.
But this year hasn’t been all doom and gloom, because researchers have also come up with mitigation strategies to prevent this from happening The worst effects of climate change. For example scientists He suggested drying out the stratospherethe layer of Earth’s atmosphere that lies between 7.5 and 31 miles (12 to 50 kilometers) above the planet’s surface. Scientists believe the stratosphere acts like a sponge and prevents heat from escaping into space, so drying it out should, at least in theory, help cool the Earth.
From surprising new sources of global warming to a ‘regime shift’ in Antarctica that could spell trouble for the world’s oceans, here are our top picks Climate change stories For the year 2024.
Amnesty International has found that climate change is making the Earth wobble and rotate more slowly
This summer, based on artificial intelligence (AI) data, researchers warn Climate change can change the Earth’s rotation It lengthens our days. The rapid melting of ice in the polar regions means that water is accumulating in the ocean, especially around the equator, causing the planet to bulge around the middle. This could slow the Earth’s rotation as more weight is distributed away from the planet’s center — similar to the way an ice skater can slow down by extending his arms. The researchers found that water accumulating near the equator also moves the Earth’s rotation axis and causes the magnetic poles to wobble away from the axis every year.
The change in the Earth’s rotation means that the days may get a little longer. Humans can easily compensate for this change by introducing negative leap seconds. But if the effects become stronger, some experts say they will affect space travel and possibly mess with timekeeping on computers and smartphones.
The Earth’s temperature has constantly exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius
An analysis published in July showed that recorded temperatures on Earth are at least 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) higher than pre-industrial averages. For 13 consecutive months starting June 2023. Each month was hotter than the previous month, indicating that the world is consistently exceeding the 1.5°C temperature rise target set in 2018. Paris Agreement. The average global temperature during those 13 months was 1.64 degrees Celsius higher than before the industrial revolution, breaking records “like never before,” the scientists said.
The hot temperature line was driven in part El Niñoa climate cycle that causes above-average sea temperatures across the eastern and central tropical Pacific. The team confirmed that the main reason is climate change and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. The Paris Agreement pledge of 1.5°C has not yet been breached, with that target being measured over 20 to 30 years, but there is no sign of temperatures falling anytime soon, the researchers said.
Scientists have discovered an unexpected new source of global warming
Research published in May found that recent reductions in emissions from shipping have declined Accidentally accelerated global warming It contributed to sea temperatures rising to record levels. Shipping regulations implemented in 2020 reduced the industry’s sulfur dioxide emissions by a whopping 80%. Although this was excellent news for air quality, the rapid reductions went hand in hand with a decline in sulfur particles, which greatly reflect and bounce sunlight back into space, thus cooling the planet.
Although the new regulations reduced deadly pollution, they also created a giant, unintended geoengineering experiment. Until recently, sulfur particles from shipping had a cooling effect that offset some of the warming from greenhouse gas emissions. But this year, researchers said the drop in particles could make the next few years unusually warm. In 2023, the magnitude of warming would be equivalent to 80% of the increase in Earth’s heat absorption in 2020, they said.
The researchers claimed that global warming could reach 2 degrees Celsius by 2030
A controversial study published in February found that Global warming is at least a decade earlier than scientists thoughtWith the Earth set to warm by 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial times by 2030. Predictions The researchers estimated that this level of warming would occur between 2040 and 2050, depending on the extent of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
The researchers analyzed sponge skeletons in the Caribbean Sea to come to their conclusion. The study hypothesized that the warming trend recorded in these skeletons is increasing with temperatures around the world. But other experts criticized the findings, saying the world’s oceans are far from homogeneous and that the warming of the Caribbean Sea does not represent global trends.
“Extrapolating from that little piece of ocean to the world is absolutely incredible.” Jochim MarotskyProfessor of Climate Science and Director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany told Live Science when the study was released.
The study’s conclusions were questionable, but there is no doubt that global warming will eventually reach 2 degrees Celsius if countries fail to cut emissions. In this sense, the study still contributes to the available climate information, experts told Live Science.
Scientists have sounded the alarm about Atlantic ocean currents
This year, climate experts have repeatedly warned that the major currents of the Atlantic Ocean could collapse by the end of this century, throwing the Northern Hemisphere, Amazon rainforests and tropical monsoon regions into climate chaos. It was the scientists The alarm has been sounding about these currents for yearsbut Several studies published in 2024 Show that the collapse will be catastrophic, long-lasting and Potentially irreversible effects. In October, 44 prominent climate scientists He wrote an open letter to policymakersHe urged them to heed these warnings and reduce emissions before it is too late.
The currents in question are those that make up the Atlantic Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a giant oceanic conveyor belt that circles the Atlantic Ocean and includes the Gulf Stream. The AMOC transports heat to the Northern Hemisphere and pumps oxygen into the deep sea, maintaining Europe’s temperate climate and supporting vital ecosystems and fisheries across the Atlantic.
But all this may soon stop due to climate change. Melting Arctic ice sheets dilute the North Atlantic waters that normally sink to the ocean floor, promoting the return of the AMOC to the Southern Hemisphere. Without this driver, northern Europe could see significant cooling, which is already evidenced by an unusual “cold spot” in the North Atlantic.
Early research suggested that an AMOC collapse was unlikely this century, but scientists now “no longer consider this possibility to be low.” Stefan Rahmstorfan oceanographer at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany who organized the open letter, He told Live Science in an interview. “That was the reason we wrote the letter,” Rahmstorff said.
Global carbon emissions have reached an all-time high
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels Set a record in 2024With 41.2 billion tons (37.4 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide entering the Earth’s atmosphere. This was a 0.8% increase on 2023, but scientists say there is no sign that emissions have peaked yet, meaning next year’s numbers could be higher.
At the rate seen this year, researchers estimate there is a 50% chance that global warming will continue to exceed the 1.5°C global warming target of the Paris Agreement in the next six years. Only deep and immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can prevent this from happening, they said.
Antarctica has demonstrated a deep glacial ‘regime shift’
On February 20, the extent of Antarctica’s sea ice was near an all-time low, at 766,400 square miles (1.985 million square km), spelling trouble for Earth’s climate. Sea ice protects the continent’s increasingly unstable land ice from warming seawater, thus protecting hanging glaciers and preserving the ability of the frozen expanse to reflect light back into space.
This year’s near-record low comes 12 months after the smallest extent of sea ice ever documented — 737,000 square miles (1.91 million square kilometers) in February 2023. These persistent lows have some scientists concerned that Antarctica has entered a ‘regime shift’ From which he may not recover. The continent, which has long served as the beating heart of the ocean, is now behaving differently and risks approaching tipping points that could throw the entire Southern Ocean into chaos. Scientists say the direct effects of Antarctic ice loss are already here The death of large numbers of emperor penguin chicks and The largest heat wave ever recorded Hitting the continent in 2022.
