The BJP’s Bihar unit has been in damage control mode to circumvent any misunderstandings over leadership issues with coalition partner JDU (Janata Dal United) ahead of the all-important Assembly elections in 2025. On December 22, the state BJP leader and vice president Minister Samrat Chaudhary categorically stated that the upcoming Bihar elections will be fought with Chief Minister and JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar as the face of the NDA.
Chaudhary rejected the speculation and said, “The NDA is working under the leadership of Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Bihar and we will continue to fight the elections under the leadership of the two leaders.” He continued, “In 2020, we contested after (Kumar was announced as the chief ministerial face of the NDA) and so far, we have only considered Chief Minister Nitish Kumar (as the NDA leader in Bihar). In future also, we will contest elections under Nitish’s leadership.” Kumar and Narendra Modi.
The clarification was important and necessary, given the confusion in political circles – and doubts among its ally JD(U) – that the BJP is capable of taking Maharashtra in Bihar.
Nitish Kumar in distress?
The rumors increased after the recent interview given by Union Home Minister Amit Shah to a news channel. Asked whether the NDA would go to the Bihar elections without naming a prime ministerial candidate (a strategy that has paid off in Maharashtra), Shah responded, after a pause: “We will sit together and decide. We will let you do that.” We know after we have taken a decision.” His response set tongues wagging about Nitish Kumar’s future.
Adopting an ‘all is well’ stance, the JDU officially interpreted Shah’s statement as a form of tacit approval of Nitish Kumar’s continued leadership. One of its spokespersons said “Maun Lakshanam, Swikriti Lakshanam (Silence means tacit approval),” but he called for coordination among the National Democratic Rally’s allies.
However, sources say there is concern among JDU leaders, including Nitish himself.
As always, as he does when he is dissatisfied with alliance partners, Nitish called in sick and did not attend the two-day ‘Global Investors Summit – Bihar Business Connect 2024’; His two deputies from the Bharatiya Janata Party, Samrat Chaudhary and Vijay Kumar Sinha, were present. The Chief Minister was expected to address potential investors and share with them the economic vision of the state.
A scowling Nitish Kumar also canceled his visit to Nalanda district on December 20 to inaugurate a statue of Magadh emperor Jarasandha at Rajgir along with his two deputies.
It was during this time that the RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) sensed an opportunity, says Sanjay Kumar, a Patna-based political expert. “Nitish remained silent. He distanced himself from the scheduled programmes. The RJD sensed this and took steps to contact Nitish. The BJP took note of these developments and went into damage control mode saying they will contest the elections under Nitish’s leadership.”
The Maharashtra analogy looms large because, as in Bihar, the BJP has been the senior partner in the ruling coalition.
To reassure Nitish Kumar after Shah’s interview, NDA voters in Bihar held a meeting in Patna on December 20 and reiterated their confidence in his leadership in the elections, ruling out any reconsideration.
BJP Bihar president Dilip Jaiswal also sought to make it clear that major decisions are taken by the parliamentary council. Other NDA partners like Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) also extended their support to Nitish Kumar.
While Nitish Kumar remained depressed, Samrat Chaudhary reiterated that his boss will be the NDA leader in the 2025 elections. Especially since rumors suggested that the BJP might contest the elections with Chaudhary as its chief ministerial face in Bihar.
backstage
A cheerful and healthy Nitish Kumar launched his ‘Pragati Yatra’ – his 14th record – on December 23. But things are not well between the NDA coalition partners.
“The statements from the BJP state leadership will not please Nitish or his coterie. They want a clarification from the BJP high command in Delhi,” says Ravi Upadhyay, a senior journalist based in Patna.
“Nitish’s actions and reactions are immediate. He is attacking smartly. There is ongoing political turmoil in Bihar. JDU is on alert after the turn of events in Maharashtra,” Upadhyay adds.
“Both the JDU and Nitish are feeling nervous after Shah’s comments,” says N K Chaudhary, a senior political analyst. “The BJP is just testing the waters as it cannot afford to antagonize the JDU at this stage. With Nitish, nothing can be ruled out. Even if Lalu Yadav, if he supports Nitish now, it will be short-lived.”
On jeopardizing coalition governments at the state and center (where the BJP does not have a majority and is supported by the JDU and the Telugu Desam Party), Sanjay Kumar says: “Both the BJP and the JDU are indulging in pressure politics. There is also information about discontent within the JDU and its MPs.” who are in touch with the central leadership of the BJP, and this may have given confidence to Shah to make such a statement.
The BJP may later say that Nitish Kumar overreacted when he missed an investors’ meeting where investments worth Rs 1.8 lakh crore were announced in Bihar, which the state desperately needs.
Perhaps the BJP is taking a calculated risk knowing that for the 2025 elections, Lalu Yadav will host Nitish only on the condition that his son and former deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav becomes Prime Minister – something that will never be acceptable to Nitish Kumar.
It would do well for the BJP to appease Nitish Kumar soon, unless it has something else up its sleeve.
(The author is Contributing Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
