
Scientists warn that the Earth faces a one in six chance of experiencing a massive volcanic eruption this century, and that “humanity has no plan to deal with it.”
Such an event, according to climate professor Dr Markus Stoffel, could lead to “climate chaos” similar to the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia.
This explosion released 24 cubic miles of gases, dust and rocks into the atmosphere, causing global temperatures to plummet.
Crops failed, famine spread, diseases rose, and tens of thousands of people died.
In contrast to the “year without a summer” that followed the Tambora eruption, a 21st-century supervolcano would add to the disruption already caused by humanity’s dependence on fossil fuels.
“The effects could be worse than they were in 1815,” explained geologist Dr. Michael Rampino. “The world is becoming unstable now.”
Ironically, the greenhouse gases released over the past century may make the consequences of such an explosion even colder.
Research by volcanologist Dr. Thomas Aubrey suggests that a hotter, more turbulent atmosphere would diffuse sulfur dioxide gas – and the sulfur aerosols it forms – more quickly, increasing the cooling effect.

This time last year, a volcano on Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula erupted, opening a fissure 2.5 miles long, spewing out hundreds of cubic meters of lava every second (above). Scientists warn that Earth has a one in six chance of having a more massive volcanic eruption this century

Climate professor Dr Markus Stoffel said this upcoming tectonic event would “cause climate chaos” reminiscent of the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia. Above, an astronaut’s photo (above) depicts the 6km-wide “caldera” summit of Mount Tambora volcano
Wider distribution of these airborne compounds that reflect sunlight would make them more effective by reducing the chances of them colliding and clumping.
“There is a sweet spot in terms of the size of these small, bright particles,” said Cambridge atmospheric scientist Dr. Anja Schmidt, a size range that is “just right” where they are very effective at scattering sunlight back.”
Our future and our atmosphere are likely hotter, according to a study I co-authored with Dr. Aubrey Nature Communications In 2021, this will soon remove an additional 30 percent of solar energy in some “global warming” scenarios.
“We suggest this could amplify surface cooling by 15 percent,” Dr. Aubrey said.
But there are also troubling uncertainties, said Dr. Stoffel, who teaches at the University of Geneva CNN.
“We’re just starting to get an idea of what could happen,” he said.
When it comes to older volcanoes, “we have very poor data,” Stoffel explained, making it more difficult to reconstruct a model of their impact.
To compensate, climate scientists, geologists and other researchers are collecting atmospheric data frozen in time within ice cores embedded in ancient ice. Tree rings.
These measurements suggest that several volcanic eruptions that occurred over the past several thousand years temporarily cooled the planet by about 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Above, an illustration of the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora
For example, the epic 1815 Tambora eruption brought down the country The average global temperature is about 1°C.
Geological evidence suggests that another major volcanic eruption in Indonesia in 1257, the Samalas mega-event, likely helped trigger a “Little Ice Age” lasting hundreds of years.
In contrast, the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines is known to have more accurately cooled the Earth for a few years by about 0.5 degrees Celsius, based on recent satellite data that can record the amount of sulfur dioxide emitted.
Even with the addition of these sensors and other seismic instruments, scientists still cannot know the future of the volcano.
“Which is next and when,” Stoffel said. “It is still impossible to predict.”
He hopes research into possible worst-case scenarios will help the public and policymakers better prepare, for everything from evacuation plans to preparing food aid in the event of crop failures around the world.
A volcanic eruption in the 21st century would impact a more populated and interconnected world, where dramatic upheavals could reverberate in deadly and unpredictable ways.
Climate change could change the behavior of the volcanoes themselves, according to Dr. Aubrey, who noted that the melting and disappearance of glaciers above a subterranean pool of magma could raise the pressure that keeps them low.

Lava spewing from a December 2023 volcano that fissured Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula (above) would have been helped by melting glaciers – reducing the weight that kept the hot magma trapped inside the Earth. Scientists have warned that we can therefore expect more potential explosions
More heavy rain, rising from before He noted that climate change could also lead to “steam bomb”-like explosions as moisture seeps deep into fissures near both active and dormant volcanoes.
“We are currently working to map which volcanoes are most sensitive to climate change,” Dr Aubrey said. Polytechnic Visions Last October.
“Roughly speaking, we know that this concerns areas where glaciers are melting rapidly, such as Iceland or Chile, as well as volcanoes that are strongly affected by rainfall, such as in Indonesia,” he said.
Dr. Aubrey explained that one 2022 study found that about 716 volcanoes worldwide, or 58% of those known to be active and above ground, could be caused by heavy rainfall, increasing the chances of a dangerous mini ice age.
“So we can expect more potential explosions,” he said.