
The year 2024 will go down in the history books as a politically exciting year. For only the second time in history, America has returned a former president to the White House. Indiana elected its 52nd white governor.
We’ve watched a rematch take shape between President Joe Biden and former President Donald J. Trump. The former was forced off the Democratic ticket in July, following a disastrous debate in June and ongoing demonstrations about the mental decline of age. The latter also showed cognitive decline and survived two assassination attempts.
Trump peppered voters with a dystopian view (America is the “garbage can of the world”) while promising “revenge” on rivals and exploiting the huge gender gap, with 55% of men supporting him. He rejected a bipartisan immigration deal in January, then used it to alienate his male voters in November.
In Indiana, Trump won 59% of the vote after former Indiana Governor and Vice President Mike Pence and US Senator Todd Young opposed his election (the Republican Congressional delegation in Indiana supported him to run in the 2024 elections). Pence referred to Trump’s clash with the US Constitution. Young for failing to support Ukraine.
In mostly rural counties, Trump received between 65% and 75% of the vote, despite his threats to impose more tariffs like those during his first term that devastated international markets for American grain and livestock.
And in Indiana’s auto counties, Trump received overwhelming support despite UAW President Sean Fine (a Kokomo native) calling him a “scabby” as President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris marched on union strike lines in 2023.
Allen County, home to the sprawling Fort Wayne GM truck plant, supported Trump over Harris 58.6%-39.7%. In Howard County, home to the Stellantis/Chrysler complex as well as Haynes International and GM’s Kokomo operations, Trump won 66.6%, while in neighboring Tipton County (home of Stellantis Transmission), he won 74.5%. In Lawrence GM (Bedford Casting and GM Power Train) and Grant (Fisher Body in Marion) counties, Trump won 74.7% and 70%, respectively. In St. Joseph County, home to AM General in Mishawaka, Trump led Harris 50%-48.5%.
Trump’s second term is likely to have a disruptive effect on the volatile auto industry. He says he will end Biden’s tax breaks on electric vehicles that could change the dynamics of the $1 billion battery plants under construction in New Carlisle and Terre Haute. He opposes the proposed merger between US Steel and Nippon Steel (as does President Biden).
According to CNN poll data, Trump won over 46% of voters between the ages of 18 and 44, 50% of those making less than $50,000, and 56% of those without a college degree. Trump won 45% of union households. He has snapped historic Democratic dominance over female, black and Latino voters, according to CNN exit polls. Trump won 13% of black voters, 46% of Latinos, 39% of Asians, and 57% of white voters.
According to Bob Woodward’s book “The War,” “There have been more than six million illegal crossings at the southern border since then.” [President Joe] Biden took office with one of the greatest levels of human displacement in history. Nearly 80% of Americans and 73% of Democrats said they disapprove of the Biden administration’s handling of the US-Mexico border.
With climate change and associated political instability, this crisis will worsen in the coming years.
Vice President Harris faced historic headwinds. Of the 46 presidencies, only 15 representatives reached the Promised Land, and four of them – Andrew Johnson, Chester A. Arthur, Theodore Roosevelt, and Lyndon Johnson – they did this after presidential assassinations. Five others — John Tyler, Millard Fillmore, Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Gerald Ford — ascended to the White House after a president died or resigned.
Only four vice presidents have been elected president: John Adams in 1796, Thomas Jefferson in 1800, Martin Van Buren in 1836, and George H. W. Bush in 1988. Two previous vice presidents have won — Richard Nixon in 1968 and Joe Biden in 2020 – Presidency. After sitting out the election cycle.
For Democrats, the vice presidential path rarely works in the modern era, as Humphrey, Walter Mondale, and Al Gore attest after losing presidential campaigns. The Democratic Party approved the promotion of Vice Presidents Adlai Stevenson, Thomas Marshall (former Indiana governor), John Nance Garner, Henry Wallace, and Albin Barclay.
As for Governor-elect Mike Brown, he won the six-way Republican primary last May, then defeated Democrat Jennifer McCormick by 14% in November.
When he takes office in January, his first major initiative will be to “reduce the tax burden” on homeowners by capping property tax increases at 2% to 3% and expanding targeted subsidies for retirees, families, and low-income people.
As Governor Pence learned in 2013 when he targeted income taxes, Republicans in the General Assembly will have a big say in what actually gets passed. Key to this will be the potential impacts on local governments, which could lose $1 billion in revenue.
Since 2012, Hoosier Republicans have held absolute majority status in both the Indiana House and Senate. This means they can pass legislation without Democrats present. This is an unprecedented grip on power, and comes as Brown begins his sixth consecutive GOP term, also a record.
Howey is a senior writer for Howey Politics Indiana and State Affairs. Find Howey on Xhwypol.